This is the best OEP ever for the ACA for several reasons:
The expanded/enhanced premium subsidies first introduced in 2021 via the American Rescue Plan, which make premiums more affordable for those who already qualified while expanding eligibility to millions who weren't previously eligible, are continuing through the end of 2025 via the Inflation Reduction Act;
A dozen states are either launching, continuing or expanding their own state-based subsidy programs to make ACA plans even more affordable for their enrollees;
100,000 or more DACA recipients are finally eligible to enroll in ACA exchange plans & receive financial assistance!
Every year, I spend months painstakingly tracking every insurance carrier rate filing (nearly 400 for 2025!) for the following year to determine just how much average insurance policy premiums on the individual market are projected to increase or decrease.
Carriers tendency to jump in and out of the market, repeatedly revise their requests, and the confusing blizzard of actual filing forms sometimes make it next to impossible to find the specific data I need.
I really only need three pieces of information for each carrier:
9/29/25: Welcome Paul Krugman subscribers! I greatly appreciate the shoutout by him but should add the following clarification:
Regarding the chart below which he reposted comparing the original ACA subsidy scale to the current version: You probably think that if the enhanced subsidies expire it will revert back to the original version, which would be bad enough. In fact, however, the Trump Regime has also made THAT version even worse, like so:
Healthy Alliance Life Insurance Company (HALIC) has filed for premium rate changes for its Affordable Care Act (ACA) compliant Individual health insurance plans. This filing includes an average rate change of 21.23%, effective January 1, 2026, with plan prices changing between 18.75% and 24.73%. The price changes will impact about 52,000 people that have HALIC plans now and will keep HALIC plans next year. An insured person’s actual rate increase could be higher or lower depending on their benefit, where they live, how old they are, number of children, and if they use tobacco.
Overall preliminary rate changes via SERFF database, state insurance dept. website and/or the federal Rate Review database.
Aetna Life Insurance Co:
(Aetna/CVS is dropping out of the individual market in all states; I estimate they have around 35,000 enrollees in Kansas who will have to find a different carrier for 2026)
Blue Cross Blue Shield of Kansas City:
Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas City (BCBSKC) is requesting an average rate change of -6.1% for 2025 individual rates as compared to 2023 individual rates and calculated by the URRT. The changes vary by plan, with a minimum rate change of -10.8% and a maximum rate increase of 1.8%.
(Moda has heavily redacted their actuarial memo and isn't providing the number of current enrollees)
The average rate change is X.XX% as shown on Worksheet 2 of the URRT. The proposed rate Proposed Rate Increase change varies by product and plan, and the proposed rates vary by plan, age, geographic area, and tobacco use. The average rate change was calculated by comparing the weighted average premium for members on current plans and rates to the weighted average premium for members on renewal plans and rates.
A summary of the major components and their contribution to the rate change is provided in the table below.
The proposed rate change of 39.0% applies to approximately 142,324 individuals. Ambetter of Magnolia Inc.’s projected administrative expenses for 2026 are $89.76 PMPM. Administrative expense does not include $34.22 for taxes and fees. The historical administrative expenses for 2025 were $73.84 PMPM, which excludes taxes and fees. The projected loss ratio is 84.4% which satisfies the federal minimum loss ratio requirement of 80.0%.
Blue Cross Blue Shield of MS:
The 2026 monthly health insurance premium is made up of four pieces: estimated claim costs, administrative costs, taxes and fees, and risk/profit margin.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Covered California is kicking off its open-enrollment period for 2026 coverage on Nov. 1 amid uncertainty surrounding the enhanced premium tax credits that have delivered greater affordability and record enrollment across the nation.
This marks the 13th open-enrollment period under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which since its inception has helped tens of millions of Americans access health insurance, including a record nearly 2 million Californians heading into 2026. Today, more than 24 million Americans are insured through a marketplace plan.
HARTFORD, Conn. (Oct. 30, 2025) — Access Health CT (AHCT), Connecticut’s official health insurance marketplace, today announced it will hold several enrollment fairs in November to help Connecticut residents shop, compare and enroll in health or dental coverage. They can also renew their coverage. Enrollment fairs are one-day events for customers to get in-person help from experts. The fairs will take place in Danbury, Manchester, Norwalk, Norwich, New London, Stratford and Willimantic. All help is free.
Open Enrollment begins Nov. 1, 2025 and ends Jan. 15, 2026.
When you enroll affects when your coverage starts. If customers enroll on or before Dec. 15, 2025, coverage will start Jan. 1, 2026. If they enroll between Dec. 16, 2025 and Jan. 15, 2026, coverage will begin Feb. 1, 2026.
Denver, Colo.– Health insurance premiums will increase for many people who buy health insurance through Colorado’s official marketplace and fewer customers in 2026 will qualify for financial help to offset those costs, according to a new analysis from Connect for Health Colorado, the state’s official health insurance marketplace. Most of the cost increase is the result of Congress allowing federal enhanced Premium Tax Credits (ePTCs) to expire.
Connect for Health Colorado’s analysis is based on the Colorado Division of Insurance’s announcement of final health insurance premium rates for plan year 2026, and reflects the expiration of ePTCs and the benefit of the introduction of Colorado Premium Assistance, which will reduce premiums for some customers.
