There's two new stories out about where things stand with Congressional Republicans obsessive desire to gut Medicaid & kick millions of people off their healthcare coverage in order to give massive tax cuts to billionaires. The first, from Jessie Hellmann, Sandhya Raman and Olivia M. Bridges at Roll Call, has some pretty positive-sounding news:
...Johnson, R-La., said leadership had ruled out two Medicaid policies that could go a long way toward meeting the Energy and Commerce Committee’s $880 billion, 10-year savings target but faced strong pushback from blue-state GOP centrists.
First, Johnson said the emerging package wouldn’t touch the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage, or FMAP, rate — the portion of state Medicaid costs borne by the federal government — for the Medicaid expansion population, which is currently 90 percent.
Johnson also poured cold water over a provision that would implement per capita caps on Medicaid benefits for enrollees in expansion states, though he wasn’t quite as definitive on that front.
Gov. Whitmer Releases Top Lines of Alarming Report on Federal Medicaid Cuts, Finding Cuts Would Terminate Health Care for 700,000 Michiganders
MDHHS report also shows federal cuts to Medicaid will increase costs for hospitals and small businesses, and significantly strain state budget
LANSING, Mich. -- Today, Governor Gretchen Whitmer released toplines of an alarming report from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) on the impact of federal proposals to cut Medicaid. According to the new report, these proposed cuts would result in a loss of health care coverage for hundreds of thousands of Michiganders, reduce access to providers for all residents, increase financial burdens on hospitals and small businesses, and significantly strain the state’s budget.
With all the understandable focus on Congressional Republicans efforts to effectively end Medicaid coverage for nearly 21 million Americans enrolled via ACA expansion, there's been much less attention paid to the other looming threat to healthcare coverage: The expiration of the upgraded financial subsidies for ~24.2 million ACA exchange enrollees, which are currently scheduled to end this New Year's Eve.
As I've explained numerous times before, the ACA's original premium subsidy formula was always far too stingy to make individual market policies affordable for many people...and worse yet, the subsidies cut off entirely for households making more than 4 times the Federal Poverty Level (FPL).
As you can imagine, this has been a monumental task; not only did I have to crunch a lot of data to break out the statewide numbers into House district-level estimates, I also had to convert that data into nearly 480 easy-to-read graphics...and then I doubled my workload by going one step further and adding high-res PDF versions for folks to print out in large format for town halls, rallies and #HandsOff protests nationally.
As of today, 650,000 North Carolinians have access to affordable health care thanks to Medicaid expansion! When leaders come together across political differences, we can make people’s lives better.
Now we must come together to defend this bipartisan victory from proposed federal cuts. People’s health and our health care system depend on it.
Governor Josh Stein announced that as of today, 650,000 newly eligible North Carolinians have gained access to affordable health care through Medicaid expansion, including veterans and workers in child care, construction, hospitality, home health care and other industries essential to the state.
With the pending dire threat to several of these programs (primarily Medicaid & the ACA) from the House Republican Budget Proposal which recently passed, I'm going a step further and am generating pie charts which visualize just how much of every Congressional District's total population is at risk of losing healthcare coverage.
USE THE DROP-DOWN MENU ABOVE TO FIND YOUR STATE & DISTRICT.
UPDATE 4/18/25: More recent Medicaid/CHIP enrollment data has become available since I first published the spreadsheet, as well as more recent total population estimates. I'm in the process of updating each but the existing spreadsheet data should still be pretty accurate. I'll post again once the spreadsheet itself has been updated.
However, for no particular reason, I included the methodology for Medicaid & CHIP data in with the ACA enrollment post, since it ACA Expansion Medicaid overlaps with that.
Below I'm posting a similar breakout of total ACA Medicaid Expansion enrollment from January 2014 - June 2024, via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services quarterly Medicaid Budget & Expenditure System reports (warning: That link could be broken or blank by the time you read this under the Trump Administration).
Unfortunately, the MBES reports currently only run through June of last year, so the last half of the year is missing.
No further analysis or comment here; I just think this is a pretty cool graphic...and keep in mind that most of the people represented here would have been utterly screwed from early 2020 - early 2023 without the Affordable Care Act being in place when the pandemic hit.
Click the image for a higher-resolution version. I'm not bothering to include the state labels since some would be too difficult to make out, but it starts with Alaska at the bottom and works its way up to West Virginia at the top (remember, neither Alabama nor Wisconsin or Wyoming have expanded Medicaid under the ACA). It also includes Guam, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
IMPORTANT: See caveats below regarding the impact of Medicaid Unwinding & other enrollment changes over time on these estimates.
12/12/24: Note: ACA Medicaid Expansion data has been updated by 3 months for most states, from March 2024 to June 2024.
With another GOP trifecta and Trump's Project 2025 promising draconian cuts to federal spending, there's a very good chance that the Affordable Care Act is, once again, on the chopping block.
I have no idea what's going to happen to either it, Medicaid, Medicare, the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), the VA or the Indian Health Service, but whatever it is probably isn't gonna be pretty.
With that in mind, I figured it would be helpful to take stock of just how many Americans are actually receiving healthcare coverage through the ACA...and while I've crunched this number several times before, I'm taking it several steps further this time and breaking it out not only by state, but by Congressional District (CD).
